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Annals of Oncology

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match Annals of Oncology's content profile, based on 14 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Partial breast irradiation after lumpectomy with omission of surgical axillary evaluation

Roth O'Brien, D. A.; Boe, L. A.; Mueller, B. A.; Montagna, G.; Hahesy, E. N.; Cuaron, J. J.; Choi, J. I.; Bernstein, M. B.; McCormick, B.; Powell, S. N.; Khan, A. J.; Braunstein, L. Z.

2026-07-01 oncology 10.64898/2026.06.29.26356836 medRxiv
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Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is increasingly omitted in early-stage breast cancer, often prompting whole-breast irradiation (WBI). We evaluated partial-breast irradiation (PBI) without axillary surgery among 78 clinically node-negative patients (median age 75) treated from 2014 to 2022. After 53-month median follow-up, no ipsilateral, regional, or distant recurrences occurred. These results demonstrate excellent outcomes and suggest PBI is a feasible, safe alternative to WBI when SLNB is omitted.

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The MHCII Immune Activation Score predicts risk of recurrence and benefit of taxanes in Basal-like and HER2-enriched breast cancer.

Bernard, P. S.; Chen, B. E.; Gao, D.; Shepherd, L. E.; Nielsen, T. O.; Varley, K. E.

2026-07-01 oncology 10.64898/2026.06.24.26356102 medRxiv
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Purpose: There are no clinically validated biomarkers to assess recurrence risk and guide treatment de-escalation in Basal-like and HER2-enriched breast cancer. Taxane-based chemotherapy remains a cornerstone of treatment despite significant toxicity. We evaluated the prognostic and predictive utility of the MHCII Immune Activation Score (IA Score) in these subtypes. Experimental Design: We retrospectively analyzed Basal-like and HER2-enriched breast cancers from the NCIC CTG MA.21 trial, which randomized patients with node-positive or high-risk node-negative disease to adjuvant chemotherapy with or without taxanes. MA.21 predated immune checkpoint inhibitors and routine HER2-targeted therapy. Subtype was previously assigned by PAM50. The 36-gene MHCII-IA assay used RNA from formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue. Multivariable Cox and Kaplan-Meier analyses evaluated associations between IA Score, clinicopathologic variables, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), relapse-free survival (RFS), and taxane benefit. Results: Among Basal-like (N=317) and HER2-enriched (N=155) tumors, higher IA Score was associated with improved RFS independent of lymph node status and provided stronger prognostic discrimination than TILs. Node-negative patients with high IA Score had excellent outcomes (8-year RFS >90%) versus those with low IA Score (8-year RFS <76%). In node-positive disease, high IA Score increased 8-year RFS by >10% relative to low IA Score. IA Score stratified taxane benefit: node-positive IA-low patients benefited, whereas IA-high tumors had favorable outcomes regardless of regimen. Conclusions: MHCII Immune Activation Score is a prognostic and predictive biomarker in Basal-like and HER2-enriched breast cancer. High IA Score identified patients with excellent outcomes before pembrolizumab, trastuzumab, and taxane-based treatment escalation, providing a rationale for prospective risk-adapted de-escalation strategies.

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Blood Based Biomarkers of DNA Methylation Associated with Platinum Resistance in High Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer

Farid, E. A.; Zhang, S.; Cardenas, H.; Fu, Z.; Vieth, A.; Coon, C. M.; Wei, J.-J.; Matei, D.; Nephew, K. P.

2026-04-24 genomics 10.64898/2026.04.23.720362 medRxiv
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BackgroundHigh grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSC) is initially a responsive tumor to platinum (Pt)-based therapy. Pt resistance in HGSC is associated with epigenetic modifications and hypomethylating agents (HMAs) have been studied as carboplatin resensitizing agents. As DNA methylation is detectable in cancer cells and in blood, here we aimed to develop a blood-based methylation signature associated with cancer and cancer recurrence in HGSC. ResultsWe evaluated genome-wide DNA methylation in de-identified peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from women 1) without cancer (controls, n=20); 2) newly diagnosed HGSC (prior to treatment, Pt-naive, n=60) 3) Pt-resistant recurrent HGSC before and after treatment with the novel HMA/DNA methyltransferase inhibitor (DNMTI) guadecitabine (Pt-resistant, n=30). The Pt-resistant patients were enrolled in NCT02901899 clinical trial testing guadecitabine and the PD-1 inhibitor pembrolizumab. DNA extracted from PBMCs was analyzed by using Infinium MethylationEPIC BeadChips. There were 30,369 differentially methylated loci (DMLs) in Pt-naive patients vs. controls (adj. p < 0.05, {beta} >10%), with most loci being demethylated. Enriched pathways in PBMCs from cancer patients included mechanisms of cancer, neutrophil degranulation, and cancer-related signaling pathways (PI3K/AKT, STAT3, HGF, interleukins). The number of DMLs was greater (880 DMLs; adj. p<0.05, {beta}>10%) in Pt-resistant vs. Pt-naive patients, and top enriched pathways associated with Pt-resistant HGSC included pathways in cancer, metabolic pathways, platelet activation, ABC transporters and signaling pathways (calcium, PI3K/AKT, MAPK, Ras, ErbB, Hippo, Wnt). Massive genomewide hypomethylation 5 days after treatment with guadecitabine was observed (13,742 DMLs; adj. p<0.05, {beta}>10%), which persisted 30 days after discontinuation of treatment. Pathways enriched by hypomethylated genes in PBMCs following guadecitabine treatment interestingly included pathways related to neuronal signaling, such as glutaminergic receptor signaling, axonal guidance signaling, synaptic long-term depression, synaptogenesis signaling and serotonin receptor signaling. Deconvolution analysis of the methylome data of PBMCs from Pt-resistant recurrent HGSC before versus after HMA treatment predicted increased naive B cells, memory and naive CD+ T cells, naive CD4+ T cells, and neutrophils and decreased monocytes. ConclusionsWe propose new DMLs associated with Pt-naive versus Pt-resistant HGSC. These findings can lead to new biomarkers for HGSC.

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Prevalence and Clinical Significance of Adult-Onset Cancer Predisposition Variants in Pediatric Oncology

Maciaszek, J. L.; Pastor Loyola, V.; Cain, T.; Cardenas, M.; Blackburn, P. R.; Wilkinson, M. R.; Koo, S. C.; Wu, C.-H.; Li, C.; Wang, L.; Nichols, K. E.; Klco, J. M.; Eldomery, M. K.

2026-06-08 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.06.07.26354365 medRxiv
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Purpose: Pathogenic or likely pathogenic (P/LP) variants are increasingly identified in genes more commonly associated with adult-onset cancer predisposition, but their prevalence and relevance to children who present with cancer remain unclear. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 1,280 consecutive pediatric patients with cancer who underwent clinical germline sequencing, using a virtual panel, from 2021 to 2024. Genes with P/LP variants were categorized as aoCPG or pediatric-onset cancer predisposition genes (poCPG) according to cancer risk before age 18 years and pediatric surveillance recommendations. Variant relevance was adjudicated using tumor diagnosis/histopathology, immunohistochemistry, and tumor molecular features and classified as primary, secondary, or indeterminate. Results: Among 1,280 patients, 197 (15.4%) harbored 211 P/LP variants across 54 genes. Sixty-six variants (31.3%) occurred in aoCPG, 87 (41.2%) in poCPG, and 58 (27.5%) were heterozygous variants in autosomal recessive genes. Among adult-onset variants, 7 (10.6%) were primary, 54 (81.8%) secondary, and 5 (7.6%) indeterminate. Among pediatric-onset variants, 77 (88.5%) were primary and 10 (11.5%) secondary. Six patients (3 adult-onset variants; 3 pediatric-onset variants) received targeted therapy informed by germline/somatic sequencing results. Conclusion: In pediatric oncology, most variants in aoCPG are secondary rather than tumor-related findings. Tumor-informed interpretation, beyond variant classification, may improve reporting, counseling, and therapeutic decision-making

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Minimal Residual Disease via circulating tumor DNA Predicts Exceptional Response in HER2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer

Morganti, S.; Song, C.; Zhou, N.; Santos, K.; Jain, P.; Walsh, L.; Li, R.; Rhoades, J.; Gilligan, K.; Kirkner, G.; Stever, C.; Patel, A.; Hughes, M. E.; Priedigkeit, N.; Makrigiorgios, G. M.; Krop, I.; Curigliano, G.; Winer, E. P.; Tolaney, S. M.; Tayob, N.; Heiling, H.; Xiong, K.; Lin, N. U.; Adalsteinsson, V. A.; Parsons, H. A.

2026-07-13 oncology 10.64898/2026.07.09.26357137 medRxiv
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Purpose: Exceptional responses are frequent in patients with HER2-positive (HER2+) metastatic breast cancer (MBC), but predictive biomarkers are lacking. We aimed to investigate the association between detection of minimal residual disease (MRD) via circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) and exceptional response to first-line HER2 targeted therapy for MBC. Patients and Methods: We identified exceptional (real-world progression-free survival [rwPFS] [&ge;]3 years) and conventional (rwPFS <3 years) responders treated with first-line HER2 targeted therapy for HER2+ MBC and plasma collected at landmark timepoints (e.g., baseline, year [Y] 1, Y2, Y3, at progression). We generated personalized, tissue-informed MRD assays using MAESTRO mutation enrichment sequencing in a pooled format. The primary endpoint was the association between MRD status at Y1 and rwPFS. Results: Of 70 patients, 63 (90%) (40 exceptional and 23 conventional responders) had sufficient samples and successful assay design; MAESTRO was run on 149 samples. A median of 1,823 (range 387-5,000) tumor-specific mutations were tracked per patient. MRD was detected in 49 (32%) samples (median tumor fraction [TFx] 936 ppm; range 3.8-164,068 ppm); 15 (31%) samples had TFx <100 ppm. MRD was associated with outcomes: 0/27 [0%] exceptional versus 9/12 [75%] conventional responders (p<0.001) had detectable MRD at Y1. Exceptional responders who remained progression-free were always MRD-negative (n=30) or cleared MRD by Y1 (n=3). Six exceptional responders experienced late progression, and four of them had a Y3 sample: MRD was detected in three patients (lead time range 2.77-13.47 years), one patient had breast-only progression and was MRD-negative. Conclusions: MRD status at key timepoints is associated with exceptional response and late distant progression, supporting prospective clinical trials implementing MRD testing with highly sensitive tumor-informed assays to guide treatment de-escalation.

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Development and Validation of Machine Learning Models for Predicting 13 or More Sections in Mohs Micrographic Surgery

Aksoy, Y. A.; Lee, S.; Moreno-Bonilla, G.

2026-07-21 dermatology 10.64898/2026.07.20.26358484 medRxiv
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Background: Cases requiring 13 or more tissue sections in Mohs micrographic surgery (MMS) demand extended operative time, additional resources, and often specialised closure techniques. Pre-operative identification of such cases would improve surgical scheduling, resource allocation, and patient counselling. We aimed to develop and validate a machine learning prediction tool using pre-operative clinical features to identify cases likely to require13 sections. Objectives: To develop and validate machine learning models for predicting which Mohs procedures will require 13 sections, using pre-operative clinical features, and to identify key predictive factors. Methods: We analysed 408 consecutive Mohs procedures with 16 pre-operative clinical variables. Thirty machine learning algorithms were evaluated, including ensemble methods (Stacking, Voting), gradient boosting (XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost), neural networks (3-7 layers), support vector machines, and traditional classifiers. Model performance was assessed using 5-fold stratified cross-validation and independent test set evaluation. Feature importance was determined using SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis. Results: The stacking ensemble achieved the highest cross-validation AUC of 0.891 (95% CI: 0.849-0.934) and test AUC of 0.884. Tumour area (cm2), calculated using the ellipse formula to approximate clinical tumour morphology, emerged as the strongest predictor (SHAP importance: 0.141), followed by tumour size dimensions (0.086 and 0.068), aggressive histopathology (0.046), and recurrence status (0.035). Wide neural network architectures (5-layer) outperformed deeper configurations (7-layer). The model demonstrated 70.7% high-confidence predictions with uncertainty <15%. Conclusions: Machine learning models using pre-operative clinical features can accurately predict which Mohs procedures will require 13 or more sections. The stacking ensemble approach provides robust predictions suitable for clinical decision support. External validation in multi-centre cohorts with diverse patient populations and practice patterns is warranted to assess model generalisability.

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Whole genome sequencing of endometrial cancer identifies novel subgroups, drivers, and actionable alterations

Meyer, S.; Kinnersley, B.; Kedzierska, K.; Soriano, I.; Lakatos, E.; Arnedo-Pac, C.; Culliford, R.; Tapinos, A.; Knight, L.; Comoglio, Y.; Frangou, A.; Cornish, A. J.; Hawari, A.; Chubb, D.; Sud, A.; Noyvert, B.; Thorn, S.; White, H.; Sosinsky, A.; Ahmed, A.; Brenton, J.; Lopez-Bigas, N.; Sottoriva, A.; Bosse, T.; Davidson, E. J.; Genomics England Endometrial Cancer GeCIP, ; Edmondson, R.; Graham, T.; Tomlinson, I.; Houlston, R. S.; Gruber, A. J.; Wedge, D. C.; Church, D. N.

2026-06-19 genomics 10.64898/2026.06.15.730391 medRxiv
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Endometrial cancer (EC) is the most common gynaecological malignancy in high income countries, and is increasing in incidence. While molecular stratification has improved its management, precision care is hampered by incomplete characterization of the EC genome. We address this by analysis of whole genome sequencing (WGS) of 665 ECs generated by the UK Genomics England 100,000 Genome Project (100kGP). 5% of cases were associated with germline pathogenic variants in cancer genes, including BRCA1 which we confirmed predisposes to EC. We identified 107 putative coding driver genes, 35% of which had no prior established role in EC. Novel structural variants included gains of MYCN and loss of its negative regulator NEDD4.1 which were significantly mutually exclusive in copy number (CN) high tumours. Immunogenomic analysis confirmed selection for driver alterations of low immunogenicity based on patient HLA haplotype, and pervasive immune escape through multiple mechanisms. Unsupervised clustering of mutational signatures and genomic alterations identified known and novel molecular subgroups, including a CN-high subset with mutational signatures of homologous recombination deficiency (HRD) and favourable outcome. Independent prognostic value of single nucleotide variant (SNV) burden, CN burden and multiple coding drivers, along with the identification of targetable molecular alterations in over one-third of cases, underscores the promise of WGS for precision medicine in EC.

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Enfortumab vedotin-induced cutaneous toxicities and their association with survival in urothelial carcinoma

Lee, E.; Karagenova, R.; Lu, C.; Farokh, P.; Azin, M.; Repetto, F.; Jobbagy, S.; Nazarian, R. M.; Reynolds, K.; Demehri, S.; Saylor, P. J.; Fuksman, L.; Semenov, Y. R.

2026-05-21 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.19.26353579 medRxiv
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Importance: Enfortumab vedotin (EV) is an antibody-drug conjugate approved for the treatment of locally advanced or metastatic urothelial cancer (la/mUC). Cutaneous adverse events (cAEs) are common during EV therapy, with prior studies suggesting an association between EV-related cAEs and improved survival; however, there is insufficient data to delineate the survival benefit of EV-induced cAEs from those associated with concurrent immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). Objective: This study aims to evaluate the association of EV-induced cAEs and survival, and to characterize the timing and morphology of EV-induced cAEs. Design: We conducted a multi-institutional retrospective study of patients with la/mUC treated with EV between 2020 and 2025. Setting: Multicenter academic referral center. Participants: A total of 449 EV-treated patients were included. Patient characteristics were extracted manually, and likelihood scoring was used to attribute cAEs to either EV or other etiologies. Exposure: EV treatment. Main Outcomes and Measures: We estimated progression-free (PFS) and overall (OS) survival using Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariable time-varying and landmark Cox regression models were used to evaluate associations between EV-induced cAE and survival. Sensitivity analyses were performed at landmarks from 15 to 105 days. Results: Of 449 patients, 206 (45.9%) developed a cAE; 39 (18.9%) were high-grade and 127 (61.7%) were attributed to EV. The most common cAEs were pruritus (41.3%), unspecified and desquamating dermatitis (37.3%), and morbilliform dermatitis (27.7%). Across all treatment groups, survival was longer in patients with EV-induced cAEs. Developing an EV-induced cAE was protective across all examined landmark times, with hazard ratio (HR) 0.60 (95% CI: 0.43-0.82, p<0.001) for PFS and HR 0.46 (95% CI: 0.31-0.67, p<0.001) for OS at primary landmark time of 30 days. Early-onset EV-induced cAEs were protective at all landmark times and high-grade EV-induced cAEs were not associated with worse survival. Conclusions and Relevance: EV-induced cAEs were independently associated with improved PFS and OS in patients with la/mUC, even after accounting for immortal time bias and ICI exposure. Distinguishing EV-induced cAEs from other etiologies in timeline and morphology may help guide oncology and dermatology management.

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Endometrial cancer survival disparities in women of African ancestry persist beyond clinical, molecular, and socioeconomic determinants

Gee, D. A.; Daroch, A.; Akerman, M.; Danziger, N.; Panella, L.; Gorman, M.; Bright, M.; Lin, D. I.; Chambwe, N.; Frimer, M.

2026-06-24 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.06.22.26355869 medRxiv
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Introduction Stark disparities in endometrial cancer (EC) risk and mortality exist between non-Hispanic Black and White women, with Black women experiencing higher incidence and worse survival. This disparity has been attributed to biological and socioeconomic factors, though how these factors interact to influence EC disparities remains unclear. This study modeled EC outcomes using race, area-level socioeconomic deprivation, clinical phenotypes, genetic ancestry, and molecular alterations. Methods We identified 281 cases of EC diagnosed from 2013-2023 in women who underwent clinical genomic sequencing as part of routine care across multiple Northwell Health sites. We estimated genetic ancestry, oncogenic alterations in 324 genes, microsatellite instability, and molecular classification. Geocoded patient addresses were used to derive the state-level Area Deprivation Index to estimate socioeconomic deprivation. Results African ancestry patients were enriched for high-grade disease (89% vs 64%), serous histology (57% vs 26%), and the TP53-mutant molecular classification (71% vs 51%) compared to European ancestry patients (p-value<0.05). Socioeconomic deprivation quintiles were associated with race, with more deprived quintiles enriched for Black patients (p-value<0.001). Both race and genetic ancestry, but not area-level deprivation, were independently associated with differences in progression-free survival. TP53 mutations were enriched in African ancestry patients, while KRAS, PTEN, and ARID1A mutations were enriched in European ancestry patients (q<0.10). Cox proportional hazards modeling, adjusting for these factors, showed that African ancestry patients had worse progression-free survival (HR 1.91, p-value<0.05). Conclusion Our findings indicate that EC disparities persist after adjusting for socioeconomic, clinical, and molecular factors, highlighting the need to further investigate additional drivers of disparity.

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Comprehensive Molecular Characterization of High-Grade Endometrial Cancer in an Ancestrally-Diverse Cohort

Frimer, M.; Gee, D.; Goldstein, Z. R.; Hooper, W. F.; Founta, K.; Deschenes, A.; Geiger, H.; Belleau, P.; Kramer, M.; Yueh, B.; Chu, T.; Oku, A.; Vaksman, Z.; Grether, V.; Steinsnyder, Z.; Araneo, A. L.; Chung, C.; Kapedani, A.; Nizam, A.; Eskiocak, O.; Ozler, K.; Goldberg, G. L.; Krasnitz, A.; McCombie, W. R.; Barbi, M.; Winterkorn, L.; Robine, N.; Beyaz, S.; Chambwe, N.

2026-05-05 cancer biology 10.64898/2026.05.01.721962 medRxiv
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Endometrial cancer (EC) exhibits one of the most striking racial disparities in oncology with black women disproportionately affected by aggressive high-grade subtypes that have poorer outcomes. While social and environmental factors undoubtedly contribute, the molecular underpinnings of these disparities remain critically understudied. To bridge this knowledge gap, we performed matched tumor-normal whole-genome sequencing and tumor transcriptome sequencing on 71 predominantly high-grade EC patient samples from an ancestrally diverse cohort of women recruited at a large hospital system in the New York metropolitan area. Our analysis characterized the germline and somatic mutation landscape, identifying ancestry-associated molecular differences. Notably, focal amplification of the EVI1 transcription factor (encoded at the MECOM locus) was significantly more frequent in African ancestry patients and associated with poorer clinical outcomes in an external validation cohort. Additionally transcriptome analysis revealed decreased CD8+ T cell infiltration with increasing African ancestry, suggesting tumor immune microenvironment differences with potential therapeutic implications. Graphical Abstract O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=163 SRC="FIGDIR/small/721962v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (63K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@12125b9org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@133c787org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@707af0org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@97615c_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG HighlightsO_LIThis study represents the most ancestrally diverse whole-genome sequencing characterization of high-grade endometrial cancer, with 62% of patients of African ancestry. C_LIO_LIMECOM focal amplification preferentially targets the oncogenic short isoform (EVI1) and is more frequent in patients of African ancestry. C_LIO_LIAfrican ancestry is associated with reduced CD8+ T cell infiltration and differential activation of immune and metabolic pathways in copy-number high endometrial tumors. C_LI

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Comparison of Relapse Rate and Disease Severity among patients with Type 2 Lepra Reaction receiving Tofacitinib and Thalidomide separately as an adjuvant to systemic steroids: A Longitudinal Analytical Study

Sanghai, R.; Naik, B. N.; Gupta, R.; Dash, G.; Mathews, I.; Pradhan, S.

2026-07-10 dermatology 10.64898/2026.07.07.26357443 medRxiv
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Background Erythema nodosum leprosum (ENL) is a severe immune-mediated complication of multibacillary leprosy requiring prolonged immunosuppression. Steroid-sparing agents are essential to reduce relapse and treatment-related morbidity. Methods This longitudinal analytical observational study compared outcomes in patients with ENL treated with prednisolone plus thalidomide (Group A; n=30) and prednisolone plus tofacitinib (Group B; n=31). Patients were followed for 6 months. Primary outcomes included relapse rate and ENLIST ENL Severity Score (EESS). Secondary outcomes were neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI), steroid dependency, and adverse events. Inter-group comparisons and longitudinal analyses were performed using non-parametric tests. Correlations between NLR, EESS, and DLQI were assessed using Spearmans rank correlation. Results Relapse occurred in 36.7% of patients in Group A and 71.0% in Group B (p=0.007). The mean number of relapses was significantly lower in Group A (0.70{+/-}1.06 vs 1.84{+/-}1.51, p=0.002). At 3 and 6 months, Group A demonstrated significantly lower NLR values (p=0.017 and p<0.001, respectively). DLQI and EESS scores improved in both groups; however, sustained improvement was more consistent in Group A. Steroid-free status at 6 months was achieved in 93.3% of Group A compared with 58.1% of Group B (p<0.001). NLR showed a positive correlation with EESS ({rho}=0.269, p=0.018) and DLQI ({rho}=0.604, p<0.001) at 6 months. On multivariable logistic regression analysis adjusting for baseline confounders, patients receiving tofacitinib had significantly higher odds of relapse compared with those receiving thalidomide (adjusted OR 9.87, 95% CI 1.73-27.12; p = 0.006).Adverse events were predominantly mild to moderate, with differing safety profiles between groups. Conclusion Thalidomide demonstrated superior relapse prevention and steroid-sparing efficacy compared with tofacitinib in ENL. NLR correlated with disease severity and quality of life, supporting its role as a useful biomarker for monitoring disease activity during follow-up.

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Real-world activity of trastuzumab deruxtecan in heavily pretreated HER2-expressing ovarian cancer: focusing on HER2-low responses and CCNE1 amplification

Voelker, G. D.; Guelhan, F.; Luebberstedt, J.; Schmoeckel, E.; Borm, K. J.; Pfarr, N.; Tschochohei, M.; Houri, L.; Fendahl, S.; Arlanch, E.; Koechert, M.; Tahiri, N.; Hapfelmeier, A.; Ilm, K.; Schueffler, P.; Janssen, J.; Boeker, M.; Kiechle, M.; Schatz, U. A.; Mogler, C.; Bressem, K. K.; Adams, L. C.; Lammert, J.

2026-06-30 oncology 10.64898/2026.06.27.26356757 medRxiv
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Background: Trastuzumab deruxtecan (T-DXd) is active in HER2-expressing solid tumours, but trials excluded HER2 immunohistochemistry (IHC) 1+ disease, and data in pretreated ovarian cancer are lacking. We evaluated real-world T-DXd activity and genomic correlates in pretreated ovarian cancer, predominantly high-grade serous (HGSOC). Methods: HER2 expression was assessed in an unselected ovarian cancer cohort (N=74). Fifteen patients receiving off-label T-DXd (14 HGSOC, 1 clear cell; IHC 1+ to 3+) had HER2 status centrally confirmed using gastric-type criteria. Activity was assessed by intra-patient growth modulation index (GMI; progression-free survival [PFS] on T-DXd divided by PFS on the prior line; [&ge;] 1.33 considered meaningful). Patients on treatment at data cut-off were censored. Objective response (RECIST 1.1) was assessed centrally where imaging was available (n=8). Results: Of the 40 HER2-expressing tumours, 15 received T-DXd, limited mainly by reimbursement. Among 14 evaluable patients (median 5 prior lines), 9 reached a GMI [&ge;] 1.33 (median 1.69); 8 remained on treatment at cut-off, making durability preliminary. Confirmed partial responses occurred across the HER2 spectrum. Benefit was independent of homologous-recombination (HR) status: one HR-proficient, CCNE1-wild-type patient achieved prolonged control and was rendered disease-free after radiotherapy to an oligoprogressive lesion. Exploratory analysis showed all four evaluable CCNE1-amplified tumours had reduced or non-durable benefit. Conclusions: T-DXd shows preliminary, clinically meaningful activity in HER2 IHC 1+ ovarian cancer independent of HR status. CCNE1 amplification may attenuate benefit, a candidate biomarker for WEE1-inhibitor combinations. Approval restricted to IHC 3+ disease would exclude most responders in this cohort. Prospective validation is required.

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Genomic analysis of BCG unresponsive non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer identifies drivers of sensitivity to intravesical Gemcitabine/Docetaxel

Yim, K.; Vergara, M.; Lee, J.; Reardon, B.; Park, J.; Melnick, K.; Clinton, T. N.; Matthew, M.; Steele, G. S.; Bolduc, J.; Hirsch, M. S.; Rizzo, N.; Wu, C.-L.; Wszolek, M. F.; Salari, K.; Feldman, A. S.; Kibel, A. S.; Mouw, K. W.; Van Allen, E. M.; Preston, M. A.; Carvalho, F. L.

2026-05-18 genomics 10.64898/2026.05.10.724123 medRxiv
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Background and ObjectivesIntravesical gemcitabine/docetaxel (Gem/Doce) is an effective therapy for Bacillus Calmette- Guerin (BCG)-unresponsive non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), achieving 50% complete responses at 2 years. However, the genomic determinants underlying response and resistance to Gem/Doce remain poorly defined. Our objective was to define the mutational landscape of BCG-unresponsive NMIBC and nominate genomic features associated with response or resistance Gem/Doce. MethodsPatients with BCG-unresponsive NMIBC treated with Gem/Doce were classified as responders (recurrence-free survival [RFS] >12 months) or non-responders (RFS <12 months). Whole-exome sequencing was performed on tumors prior to Gem/Doce treatment (n=23). Single nucleotide variants were identified and annotated using a Cancer Genome Analysis pipeline. Copy number alterations were inferred with ABSOLUTE, and clonal architecture was reconstructed using PhylogicNDT. Key Findings and LimitationsResponders demonstrated significantly prolonged time to high-grade recurrence (3.5 vs 42 months, p<0.001) and cystectomy compared with non-responders (9.5 months vs not reached; p<0.001). Non-responders exhibited higher tumor mutational burden (13.66 vs 8.71; p=0.02) and more frequent whole-genome doubling (2/2 non-responders vs 0/1 responders; p=0.33). Phylogenetic analyses revealed clonal BAP1 and subclonal BRCA2 mutations in responders, whereas non-responders harbored clonal FGFR3 mutations. Limitations include small sample size and retrospective design. Conclusions and Clinical ImplicationsDistinct genomic features underlie differential response to Gem/Doce in BCG-unresponsive NMIBC. In responders, alterations in DNA repair pathways (e.g., BRCA2) may sensitize tumors to chemotherapy, while non-responders with FGFR3 mutations may benefit from alternative targeted strategies. These findings warrant validation in larger cohorts and support the development of biomarker-driven clinical trials. Patient summaryIn this report we analyzed bladder tumors and found that some tumors respond well to treatment because they have defects in repairing DNA, making them more vulnerable to chemotherapy. In contrast, tumors that do not respond to chemotherapy harbor different genetic changes that help them survive and grow. These findings may help physicians choose more effective and personalized treatments in the future.

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NEO-EXCEL: Neoadjuvant trial of pre-operative exemestane or letrozole, with or without celecoxib, in the treatment of oestrogen receptor-positive postmenopausal early breast cancer: A phase III, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Francis, A.; Patel, A.; Pirrie, S. J.; Prest, C.; Brookes, C. L.; Bartlett, J. M. S.; Stein, R. C.; Dunn, J. A.; Canney, P.; Poole, C. J.; Patel, A. R.; Grant, M.; Herring, K.; Southgate, E.; Gaunt, C.; Bowden, S. J.; Rea, D. W.

2026-07-15 oncology 10.64898/2026.07.13.26356308 medRxiv
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Background The NEO-EXCEL trial hypothesised that aromatase inhibitor (AI)-activity as neoadjuvant endocrine therapy for early-stage breast cancer in postmenopausal women may be enhanced in combination with cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) inhibition. Methods NEO-EXCEL was a phase III, placebo-controlled, randomised trial in postmenopausal women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive resectable breast cancer with tumours [&ge;]2cm. Women were randomised (1:1:1:1): exemestane (25mg od) plus celecoxib (400mg bid), exemestane (25mg od) plus placebo (bid), letrozole (2.5mg od) plus celecoxib (400mg bid), or letrozole (2.5mg od) plus placebo (bid). Primary endpoint was clinical response (complete/partial) measured by callipers at 16 weeks; a standard assessment method at the time of trial inception. Sixteen-week ultrasound-determined response was the main secondary outcome to verify the calliper-based primary. Analysis was intention-to-treat. Results Due to slow accrual the trial design was redesigned from a definitive 2x2, 1000 patient trial to one randomising 269 patients between 20-Nov-2007 and 29-Apr-2014; 34.9% were human epithelial growth factor receptor 2-positive. AI+celecoxib produced a significantly greater objective clinical response than AI+placebo (72.9% vs 55.6%, P=0.003), which remained after adjustment for AI type and stratification factors (odds ratio = 2.3; 95% CI 1.3-3.8, P=0.003). Ultrasound-determined response was however not significantly enhanced (48.7% [AI+celecoxib] vs 41.2% [AI+placebo], P=0.34). Progression free survival and overall survival remained similar (median follow-up = 5.1 years [range 0.1-7.1]). Conclusions NEO-EXCEL is the first completed, phase III double-blind, placebo-controlled trial testing the addition of celecoxib to AI as neoadjuvant endocrine therapy in early breast cancer. Clinical response showed significant improvement but there was no significant ultrasound-determined response improvement nor any surgical or long-term outcome evidence of AI+COX-2 inhibition improving treatment outcomes for ER+ early resectable postmenopausal breast cancers. Use of short-term celecoxib at 400mg bd for 16 weeks was safe with no excess cardiotoxicity observed.

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CBFB mutations predict endocrine therapy benefit in estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer

Yaacov, A.; Passi, G.; Gillis, R.; Katz, D.; Grinshpun, A.

2026-05-21 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.18.26353467 medRxiv
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Purpose: Beyond estrogen receptor (ER) positivity, no genomic biomarker reliably identifies ER+ breast cancer patients who derive differential benefit from endocrine therapy (ET). We performed an unbiased genomic screen to discover genes predicting ET response and characterized the top candidate across clinical settings, treatment modalities, and an independent validation cohort. Experimental Design: We screened 240 genes in 1,197 metastatic ET-treated patients from the MSK-CHORD clinical genomics database using Cox proportional hazards regression with false discovery rate (FDR) correction. The top candidate, core-binding factor subunit beta (CBFB), was characterized across four cohorts defined by disease setting (metastatic/adjuvant) and treatment (ET/chemotherapy), with multivariable adjustment, gene-by-treatment interaction testing, left-truncation sensitivity analysis for guarantee-time bias, and external validation in METABRIC (N = 1,499 ER+). Results: CBFB mutations (prevalence, ~5%) were the only gene associated with improved time to progression (TTP). In metastatic ET patients, CBFB-mutated tumors (n = 80) demonstrated significantly longer TTP (hazard ratio [HR], 0.44; 95% CI, 0.29-0.67; P = .0002, FDR q = .010) with no chemotherapy benefit (HR, 1.16; P = .65). The gene-by-treatment interaction was significant (HR, 0.37; P = .009). Effects were robust to multivariable adjustment (HR, 0.46-0.50), independent of histology, and preserved under left-truncated Cox regression (HR, 0.38). In the adjuvant setting, CBFB mutations predicted improved recurrence-free survival (HR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.31-0.85; P = .010), with no effect under chemotherapy. In METABRIC, CBFB mutations predicted improved ER+ overall survival (HR, 0.52; P = 9.3e-5). Conclusions: CBFB mutations identify ~5% of ER+ breast cancers with exceptional ET benefit. As CBFB is included on all major cancer gene panels, this biomarker requires no additional testing infrastructure for clinical implementation.

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Auranofin potentiates cisplatin response through context-dependent NOTCH-associated signaling states in endometrial cancer

Lake, R. J.; Tshibangu, C.; Candia, N. J.; Abfalterer, Q. U.; Lagutina, I. V.; Pauken, C.; Leslie, K. K.; Steinkamp, M. P.; Fan, H.-Y.

2026-05-31 cancer biology 10.64898/2026.05.27.728338 medRxiv
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Therapeutic resistance remains a major challenge in advanced and recurrent endometrial cancer (EC). Aberrant NOTCH signaling has been associated with aggressive tumor behavior and therapeutic resistance across multiple malignancies, yet its therapeutic significance in EC remains incompletely defined. We investigated whether auranofin (AuR), a noncanonical modulator of NOTCH signaling through the transcriptional effector RBPJ, alters platinum responsiveness in EC models. Elevated NOTCH3 copy-number was associated with poorer overall survival in the TCGA-UCEC cohort. AuR treatment reduced RBPJ occupancy at canonical NOTCH target loci, including HES1 and HES4, across multiple EC models. Stable NOTCH3 depletion altered AuR responsiveness in a context-dependent manner while significantly enhancing cisplatin (CDDP) sensitivity in AN3CA cells. Pharmacologic AuR treatment similarly potentiated CDDP response in AN3CA cells and AN3CA xenografts, resulting in reduced tumor burden and prolonged endpoint-free survival following combination treatment. In contrast, ARK-1 xenografts demonstrated limited additional benefit from combined AuR plus CDDP therapy despite detectable suppression of RBPJ occupancy. Together, these findings identify context-dependent NOTCH-associated therapeutic vulnerabilities in EC and support further development of biomarker-guided AuR-based platinum-sensitization strategies. Statement of significanceAuranofin suppresses RBPJ-associated transcriptional activity and enhances cisplatin response in biologically distinct subsets of endometrial cancer.

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Rare Germline Variants in Immune and Drug Target Genes Among Cancer Exceptional Responders

Chen, S.; Tan, A. L. M.; Saad Menezes, M. C.; Perry, C. L.; Vella, M. E.; Viswanadham, V. V.; Kobren, S.; Churchill, S.; Kohane, I. S.

2026-05-19 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.05.14.26352838 medRxiv
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Background Cancer treatment response is highly variable, even among patients with the same tumor type and treatment. Exceptional responders (ERs), who are individuals who experience unusually favorable outcomes, provide critical insights into the biological factors driving treatment success. While prior studies have highlighted the role of somatic changes, the contribution of germline rare variants remains underexplored. This study aimed to uncover the genetic underpinnings of exceptional responses by identifying rare, non-silent and predicted deleterious germline mutations enriched among ERs compared to typical cancer patients. Methods The Network of Enigmatic Exceptional Responders (NEER) project collected clinical and germline whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data from 53 ERs. After quality control procedures and ancestry background checks, 51 ERs were left for final analysis. While non-silent mutations were identified based on allele frequencies and mutation types, multiple pathogenicity predictors were applied for predicted deleterious variants. These were compared to a harmonized and comparable subset from the Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) cohort (n=414) using Fisher's exact tests. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis applied to evaluate prognostic associations in PCAWG patients. Additionally, Fisher's exact tests were conducted stratified by cancer type and treatment regimen to identify potential associations between rare germline variants and therapeutic responses. Results Variants in immune-related genes such as CCL26 and GPRC5D were prevalent, suggesting enhanced immune regulation among ERs. Fourteen genes with non-silent and eight with predicted deleterious mutations showed significantly different frequencies between NEER and PCAWG cohorts (FDR < 0.05). IRX3 emerged as a protective gene enriched in ERs, whereas OR6B2 was associated with poor survival in PCAWG lung cancer patients. Moreover, rare non-silent germline variants in drug target genes were enriched among ERs treated with cisplatin and doxorubicin, implicating altered DNA repair and drug-binding mechanisms in their remarkable outcomes. Conclusions This study reveals a distinctive germline mutation landscape in exceptional cancer responders, marked by immune-related and drug-target-associated variants that may enhance therapy response and prolong survival. The findings highlight potential novel prognostic biomarkers, such as IRX3 and OR6B2, providing a foundation for developing personalized cancer treatments informed by rare genetic variation.

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Histology-Derived Signatures Predict Recurrence Risk and Chemotherapy Benefit in Randomized Trials of Early Breast Cancer

Howard, F. M.; Li, A.; Kochanny, S.; Sullivan, M.; Flores, E. M.; Dolezal, J.; Khramtsova, G.; Hassan, S.; Medenwald, R.; Saha, P.; Fan, C.; McCart, L.; Watson, M.; Teras, L. R.; Bodelon, C.; Patel, A. V.; Symmans, W. F.; Partridge, A.; Carey, L.; Olopade, O. I.; Stover, D.; Perou, C.; Yao, K.; Pearson, A. T.; Huo, D.

2026-04-24 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351499 medRxiv
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PurposeTo test whether histology-derived gene-expression signatures from routine hematoxylin and eosin slides are prognostic for recurrence and predictive of chemotherapy benefit in early breast cancer. MethodsWe conducted a multi-cohort study including CALGB 9344 (anthracycline {+/-} paclitaxel), CALGB 9741 (standard vs dose-dense chemotherapy), a pooled Chicago real-world cohort, and the American Cancer Society (ACS) Cancer Prevention Studies-II and -3. Whole-slide images were processed with a previously described pipeline to generate 61 histology-derived signatures per patient. The primary endpoint was distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI), except in ACS, where breast cancer-specific survival was used. Secondary endpoints include distant recurrence-free survival (DRFS) and overall survival. The most prognostic signature in CALGB 9344, selected by Harrells C-index, was evaluated in additional cohorts. Signature-treatment interaction was assessed by likelihood-ratio tests. Multivariable Cox models incorporating age, tumor size, nodal status, estrogen/progesterone receptor status, and signature were fit in CALGB 9344 to improve risk stratification. ResultsA total of 7,170 patients were included across four cohorts. The top histology-derived signature in CALGB 9344 showed strong prognostic performance for 5-year DRFI (C-index 0.63) and performed well across validation cohorts (C-index 0.60, 0.70, and 0.62 in CALGB 9741, Chicago, and ACS, respectively). The strongest predictive signal for treatment benefit was observed for DRFS. High-risk cases identified by the signature demonstrated greater benefit from taxane in CALGB 9344 (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.76 for DRFS, 95% CI 0.66-0.88; interaction p=0.028), from dose-dense chemotherapy in CALGB 9741 (aHR 0.69, 95% CI 0.56-0.85; interaction p=0.039), and differential chemotherapy benefit in the Chicago cohort (aHR 0.84, 95% CI 0.59-1.21; interaction p=0.009). Combined clinical-histology models improved risk stratification and identified low-risk groups with a 2%-10% risk of distant recurrence or breast cancer death. ConclusionHistology-derived signatures from H&E images are broadly prognostic and, unlike clinical factors, may predict chemotherapy benefit. HighlightsO_LIHistology-derived H&E signatures consistently predicted recurrence risk across randomized trials and real-world cohorts. C_LIO_LIA single cutoff of a low-risk histology signature predicted taxane benefit and dose-dense chemotherapy benefit. C_LIO_LICombined clinical-histology models identified low-risk groups with 2%-10% risk of distant recurrence. C_LI

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Development and Validation of a Multimodal Clinical, Pathologic, and Genomic Model for Breast Cancer Recurrence

Nguyen, N.-K.; Li, A.; Kochanny, S.; Dolezal, J.; Ramesh, S.; Shamai, G.; Zhao, J.; Nanda, R.; Chen, N.; Olopade, O. I.; Sullivan, M.; Flores, E. M.; Khramtsova, G.; Jain-Liu, S.; Medenwald, R.; Saha, P.; McCart, L.; Watson, M.; Symmans, W. F.; Kalinsky, K.; Pusztai, L.; Gala, M.; Paul, E. D.; Huraiova, B.; Cekan, P.; Partridge, A. H.; Carey, L.; Stover, D.; Yao, K.; Sparano, J. A.; Huo, D.; Pearson, A. T.; Howard, F. M.

2026-05-12 oncology 10.64898/2026.05.08.26352562 medRxiv
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PurposeTo develop and validate a multimodal recurrence-risk model integrating histology, genomic testing, and clinical variables. MethodsWe developed AI-Path, a whole-slide image biomarker for recurrence prediction trained in CALGB 9344, and validated it in three independent cohorts: TAILORx, a multi-site Chicago cohort, and the MDX-BRCA cohort. We then integrated AI-Path with Oncotype DX Recurrence Score (RS), tumor size, and nodal status into a Cox model, PathClinRS, fit using 60% of cases from TAILORx, with the remaining 40% held out for validation. The primary end point was distant recurrence-free interval. Performance was assessed using Harrells concordance index (C-index) and Kaplan-Meier analyses. ResultsA total of 12,418 patients were included. In TAILORx, AI-Path outperformed RS for distant recurrence (C-index, 0.682 vs 0.647; P = .038), driven by superior prediction of late recurrence (0.656 vs 0.567; P < .001). In node-negative disease, PathClinRS outperformed RSClin in the TAILORx fitting (0.72 vs 0.70; P = .016) and validation sets (0.74 vs 0.70; P = .004). In node-positive disease, PathClinRS outperformed RSClinN+ in Chicago (0.94 vs 0.74; P < .001) and MDX-BRCA (0.71 vs 0.66; P = .004) cohorts. Compared with NATALEE eligibility, PathClinRS identified nearly twice as many high-risk node-negative patients while maintaining a comparable 10-year distant recurrence risk (16.7% vs 16.6% per NATALEE eligibility in TAILORx fitting; 21.0% vs 19.4% in TAILORx validation). PathClinRS identified 68% of intermediate risk premenopausal patients as low-risk with no evidence of chemotherapy benefit, compared to only 36% identified as low risk by standard clinicopathologic criteria. ConclusionDigital histopathology provides prognostic information complementary to genomic assays and has the potential to personalize therapy beyond existing clinicogenomic tools.

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Automated histopathological measurements of the tumor micro-environment predict distant metastasis after stage I/II Melanoma: discovery and validation in the population-based Dutch Early-Stage Melanoma (D-ESMEL) study

Kerkour, T.; Hollestein, L.; Nigg, A.; Li, Y.; Damman, J.; Zhou, C.; Nijsten, T.; Mooyaart, A.

2026-06-03 dermatology 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354705 medRxiv
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Abstract: Background: More than half of metastatic melanomas arise from patients initially diagnosed with early-stage melanoma. Objective biomarkers are needed to better identify high-risk patients. Objective: To evaluate the prognostic value of multiple histopathological characteristics in predicting distant metastasis risk, in early-stage melanoma. Methods: Using data from discovery set (n=442) and a population-based validation cohort (n=306, sampled from 5,815 patients) of the Dutch Early-Stage Melanoma (D-ESMEL) study, we investigated 14 histopathological characteristics of melanoma and their tumor micro-environment (TME) in an unprecedented integration, by expert pathologist scoring and automated quantitative measurements derived from a validated automated segmentation. Results: Increased immune infiltrates (40% in cases vs. 50% in controls) were associated with lower risk of metastasis. Automated immune cell density was predictive in both the discovery set and the validation cohort, outperforming the manual pathological tumor infiltrating lymphocytes. The remaining histopathological features, including mitotic activity, did not retain independent value after controlling for current staging variables. Limitations: TME evaluation in standard Hematoxylin-Eosin slides. Conclusion: TME reaction is an important determinant of melanoma progression. The automated quantification of immune cell density appears to be a biomarker for distant metastasis risk. Further investigation into specific immune cell subtypes is required to facilitate clinical integration.